The wear and tear of an 82-game regular season causes great physical and mental fatigue.
However, this long stretch gives teams ample time to discover their respective identities.
And with only 16 teams remaining as we enter the NBA Playoffs, the championship-caliber teams have separated themselves by embracing these identities.
Here are my predictions for the eight first-round matchups to kickstart the NBA Playoffs:
EAST
#1 CLEVELAND CAVALIERS VS. MIAMI HEAT
PICK: CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
X-FACTOR: PG DARIUS GARLAND
The three-point line, where games are won and lost, is driving the Cavaliers’ success.
Cleveland sported a 38.3% three-point percentage this season – ranking second in the league. Point guard Darius Garland registered one of his most efficient shooting seasons, shooting 40.1% from beyond the arc on 7.1 attempts per game.
To complement Garland’s shooting stroke, the Cavaliers have three other players who have recorded over a 40% clip from three: shooting guard Caris LeVert, small forward De’Andre Hunter, and shooting guard Ty Jerome have averaged over 3.5 attempts per game.
Despite being one of the NBA’s better long-range shooting teams as well, the Miami Heat are still 1.5% less efficient from long-range than the Cavaliers while shooting about four less threes per game.
Although the Heat added point guard Davion Mitchell at the NBA Trade Deadline to pester opposing shooters on the perimeter, it will not be enough to deter the Cavaliers’ elite marksmanship.
And the Cavaliers’ shooting opportunities will be increased by the attention their frontcourt demands.
Center Jarrett Allen along with power forward Evan Mobley have each logged over nine rebounds per game to bolster their defensive impact and their offensive efficiency. The two sport 70.6% and 55.7% clips from the field, respectively.
Center Ka’lel Ware and power forward Bam Adebayo have shored up the Heat’s paint defense, but the versatile Cavaliers’ offense will be too much to overcome.
#2 BOSTON CELTICS VS. ORLANDO MAGIC
PICK: BOSTON CELTICS
X-FACTOR: SF JAYSON TATUM
Defense anchors a team’s success, especially in the NBA Playoffs when everything is on the line.
And both the Celtics and the Magic brandished some of the best defensive units in the NBA: the Magic allowing 105.5 points per game while the Celtics sported a 107.2 clip.
Therefore, offense holds a meaningful stake in this series. With one of the most talented offensive arsenals in the league, the Celtics, averaging 116.3 points per game, pose a threat to the Magic.
The catalyst for this offensive production has been small forward Jayson Tatum – who has averaged 26.8 points while shooting 45.2% from the field.
In Tatum’s sole performance against the Magic during the regular season, he posted 30 points, urging the Celtics to a 27-point victory.
Outside of the 2023-2024 First Team All-NBA selection, the Celtics have five other players who registered a double-digit points per game clip, and the squad has the depth to make another championship run.
Despite the Magic’s defensive prowess, they are top-heavy on offense. Compared to the Celtics’ six double-digit point per game scorers, the Magic have just four. However, the return of power forward Paolo Banchero, who only played 46 games this season due to injury, gives the Magic another attacking option.
Although the Magic finished the regular season strong, winning nine of their last 12, the Celtic’s championship experience and depth gives them the edge in this series.
#3 New York Knicks vs. Detroit Pistons
PICK: DETROIT PISTONS
X-FACTOR: C JALEN DUREN
Basketball is about mastering the fundamentals, and rebounding has a great impact on a team’s offensive and defensive success.
In the NBA Playoffs, rebounds can change the entire dynamic of a series.
The Knicks are one of the worst rebounding teams in basketball, averaging a seventh-worst 42.6 rebounds per game. Despite center Karl-Anthony Towns’ career-high 12.8 rebounds per game and shooting guard Josh Hart’s herculean effort to consistently crash the boards, the Knicks have not found much production elsewhere. Only two other players on the squad had more than 5.0 rebounds per game during the regular season.
The Pistons may seek to take advantage of Knick’s glaring flaw.
Compared to the Knicks, the Pistons rank 13th in rebounds per game with a 44.8 clip, and center Jalen Duren has paved the way with his 10.3 boards per contest. The third-year star accumulated 13 rebounds in the squad’s most recent contest against the Knicks.
Point guard Cade Cunningham averaged 31 points per game against the Knicks this season, spearheading the Pistons 3-1 regular season record against them, but dominating the boards will be the team’s key to success.
#4 INDIANA PACERS VS. #5 MILWAUKEE BUCKS
PICK: MILWAUKEE BUCKS
X-FACTOR: PG Damian Lillard
Lust for vengeance drives a competitive effort.
The Bucks head into their game against the Pacers with the memory of last season fresh in their minds.
With injuries upon injuries piling up, the Pacers stole the first round series from them.
However, the Bucks are getting healthy at the right time. Power forward Giannis Antetokounmpo played his best basketball down the stretch, averaging 30.8 points per game, 12 assists per game, and 13.5 rebounds per game in the last five games of the regular season.
And against the Pacers, Antetokounmpo has made his presence especially known, leading the Bucks to three out of four regular season wins against their rival.
Especially given the Pacers’ shaky defense, which ranks in the bottom half of the league in points per game allowed with a 115.1 clip, the two-time MVP is primed for a big series.
However, point guard Damian Lillard’s return could turn the tide of the series.
Lillard has been out with deep vein thrombosis for over a month. Prior to his injury, he helped orchestrate the Bucks’ offense, averaging 24.9 points per game and 7.1 assists per game, both of which rank 10th in the NBA.
The presence of Lillard will open up opportunities for Antetokounmpo, who has been punishing defenses without a second option for over a month.
And with both players inclined to avenge the Bucks’ playoff defeat last season, the Pacers will be in a world of hurt.
WEST
#1 OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS. MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
PICK: OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
X-FACTOR: PG SHAI-GILGEOUS ALEXANDER
The team with the best roster often prevails.
This is especially true during the NBA Playoffs, where teams have a seven-game cushion to game plan and adjust when the unexpected occurs.
The Thunder have been the best team in the NBA this season, accumulating a league-leading 68 wins. In order to achieve this, you need both a dominant offense and defense; the Thunder wield both.
The squad has averaged 120.5 points per game and has only allowed 107.6 opponent points per game, ranking top five in both categories.
The primary reason for the Thunder’s success is point guard Shai Gilgeuous-Alexander, who has averaged a league-best 32.7 points per game while shooting 51.9% from the field on 21.8 field goal attempts per game. Gilgeous-Alexander has also showcased his length and defensive ability with his 1.7 steals per game and 1.0 blocks per game.
However, the 2023-2024 First Team All-NBA selection has particularly excelled against the Grizzlies, garnering 36.2 points per game across four games, each of which the Thunder prevailed by more than 10 points.
Despite having one of the most prolific offenses in the league, the Grizzlies have struggled defensively, allowing opposing teams to post 116.9 points per game, tied for the sixth-worst clip in the league.
Even with their high-flying offense, the Grizzlies would still be unable to keep pace with the deepest offense in the NBA, which has seven players registering double-digit points each game.
#2 HOUSTON ROCKETS VS. #7 GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
PICK: HOUSTON ROCKETS
X-FACTOR: SG JALEN GREEN
Although experience is often considered to be the difference-maker in the NBA Playoffs, youth remains understated.
The Rockets are healthy, fresh, and brimming with youthful energy.
The squad ranks one of the best in the fastbreak, recording 17.0 fast break points per game, whereas the Warriors only record 14.5.
In their most recent matchup, the Rockets ran the Warriors off the court, sporting 26 fastbreak points compared to the Warriors’ 12. Small forward Amen Thompson’s stalwart defense on point guard Stephen Curry limited him to three points and one field goal conversion.
Additionally, the Rockets embraced their defensive identity throughout their four regular season matchups against the Warriors, holding the Warriors under 100 points in three out of those contests. The team has allowed 109.8 points per game, good for sixth-best in the NBA.
Although small forward Jimmy Butler upheld his long standing “Playoff Jimmy” reputation in Warriors’ play-in win against the Grizzlies, where he accrued a team-leading 38 points, Butler averaged 16 points across both of his games against the Rockets this season.
Despite the Rockets’ defensive prowess, they will need to get perimeter offensive production, since defensive specialist Draymond Green will be assigned to guard center Alperen Sengun.
Point guard Jalen Green could provide the Rockets with the perimeter spark plug that they need.
Before the fourth-year player’s limited action across the Rockets’ last three games, he averaged 25 points per in the prior eight. Green also registered his most efficient season from the three point line, posting a 35.4% clip on 8.1 attempts per game.
Any youthful team is bound to be a wild card; however, the Rockets are capable of beating more experienced teams, such as the Warriors.
#3 LOS ANGELES LAKERS VS. #6 MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
PICK: MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
X-FACTOR: C RUDY GOBERT
It is no secret that the NBA has transitioned from a paint-centric league to perimeter-driven league.
However, as defensive intensity ratchets up, it can be harder to find clean-looks from three.
Therefore, many teams opt to run their offense from inside-out, which relies on paint domination.
Thus, it is the Timberwolves’ advantage in the frontcourt – which consists of center Rudy Gobert and power forward Julius Randle – that could sway the outcome of this series in their favor.
The Lakers are currently starting Jaxson Hayes at center, who is one of the worst paint defenders in the NBA. Since February 1st, Hayes has registered a 102.5 defensive rating, which is the sixth-lowest individual defensive rating in the NBA. The squad is also the fifth-worst rebounding team in the NBA, sitting at 42.4 rebounds per game.
The lack of talent in the Lakers’ frontcourt will force them to focus on limiting the Timberwolves’ bigs, allowing shooting guard Anthony Edwards to strike from the perimeter or on drives to the rim.
Although Edwards struggled in the squad’s four games against the Lakers this season, he excelled in the first round of the NBA Playoffs last season, averaging 31 points per game against the Suns while shooting 51.2% from the field and 43.8% from three.
However, Edwards can only accomplish this if the Timberwolves’ frontcourt eases the pressure off him, similar to how center Karl-Anthony Towns did last season.
Nevertheless, this appears to not only be a reasonable prediction, but an inevitability.
#4 DENVER NUGGETS VS. #5 LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
PICK: LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
X-FACTOR: SF KAWHI LEONARD
Multiple teams have established big threes. From the early 2010s San Antonio Spurs to the late 2010s Golden State Warriors, a big three defines these dynasties.
However, big threes can arise from the most unconventional places.
Such is the case with the Los Angeles Clippers, whose “big three” consists of shooting guard James Harden, combo guard Norman Powell, and small forward Kawhi Leonard.
The trio has created the Clippers’ offensive balance: each player averages over 20 points per game. Their multifaceted attack is the squad’s greatest advantage over the Nuggets’ one-dimensional offense that center Nikola Jokic orchestrates.
Nevertheless, the three-time MVP also has point guard Jamaal Murray as a valid secondary option and leads the most efficient offense in the league that shot 50.6% from the field during the regular season.
However, the Clippers brandish one of the most talented defensive arsenals in the league, forcing teams to shoot 46.1% from the field against them, tied for eight-best in the NBA. Center Ivica Zubac has also developed into a formidable defensive-minded center, and the Clippers allow the sixth-least points in the paint at a 46.5 per game clip.
Despite the Clippers’ defensive skill set, they wield an efficient offense led by their big three. The team is tied with the Thunder for the sixth-best field goal percentage in the NBA at a 48.2% clip while also recording the seventh-best three point field goal percentage at a 37.3% clip.
Consistency is the Clippers’ biggest advantage against the Nuggets – a team that just fired their winningest coach in franchise history, Michael Malone.
With the Nuggets reeling from this shocking move, the Clippers have the perfect opportunity to throw the knockout punch.
