College Football Playoff First Round Predictions

The NCAA has decided to implement a new playoff format to college football, replacing the old four team playoff with a novel 12 team playoff. The format change has allowed college football to reach a wider breadth of college football programs, since the top-four ranked conference championship winners, despite conference prestige, achieve the top-four seeds. In the first rendition of the 12-team playoff, the Boise State Broncos, led by Heisman runner-up running back Ashton Jeanty, is the anomaly given their place in the Mountain West conference. Other unconventional college football programs like the Arizona State Sun Devils and the SMU Mustangs will also take center stage in front of a mainstream audience.

In essence, there is a ton to preview, so let’s jump right into my predictions for the first round of the College Football Playoff.

Source: Sporting News

#9 Tennessee @ #8 Ohio State

The Ohio State Buckeyes have just come off a heart wrenching defeat to their arch rivals, the Michigan Wolverines, where they lost 13-10 in front of their home crowd. This represents the fourth-straight year in which they have lost “The Game.” However, this Buckeyes team is still extremely talented. Statistically, they sport the best defense in the country, holding teams to 241.1 yards/game. In the secondary, they are anchored by Sophomore Safety Caleb Downs and Senior Cornerback Denzel Burke. Downs transferred from Alabama after an All-American freshman season for the Crimson Tide, and he has continued to impress in his sophomore season for the Buckeyes. Burke leads the team in interceptions and is set to be a first round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Their defensive line is also particularly strong, with Senior Defensive Ends J.T. Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer wreaking havoc upon opposing offensive lines. As for the Buckeyes offense, they have talent at all levels. Junior Running Back Quinshon Judkins and Senior Running Back TreVeyon Henderson have excelled in the backfield as a formidable tandem. In the passing game, True Freshman Wide Receiver Jeremiah Smith leads the team in receiving yards. To complement Smith, the Buckeyes have Senior Wide Receiver Emeka Egbuka and Sophomore Wide Receiver Carnell Tate. However, Ohio State has an injured offensive line and a question mark at quarterback. Senior Center Seth McLaughlin and Senior Left Tackle Josh Simmons are both out for the season, which have proven to be extremely consequential injuries for the Buckeyes. As for quarterback position, Senior Will Howard has struggled in the big moments, particularly with his slide against the Oregon Ducks as the clock dwindled down to seal the Oregon Ducks’ 32-31 victory and his two interceptions against a depleted Michigan Wolverines’ secondary.

On the other hand, the Tennessee Volunteers finished the regular season with a 36-23 win against the dangerous Vanderbilt Commodores. Tennessee is a very well-balanced team, with a top-10 statistical offense and defense. Their x-factors on offense include Junior Running Back Dylan Sampson, who had 22 rushing touchdowns this season, and True Freshman Quarterback Nico Iamaleava. Their defense is led by the cornerback tandem of Sophomore Jermod McCoy, who is one of his best at his position in the SEC, and Senior Will Brooks. On the defensive line, Junior Defensive End James Pearce Jr. leads the team in sacks with 7.5 on the season. Pearce Jr. is projected to be a late first round draft pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.

Despite Ohio State’s defensive prowess on paper, they struggled to contain Michigan Running Back Kalel Mullings in “The Game.” Dylan Sampson is a much better running back than Mullings, and he is poised to have a big impact on this matchup. Given the injury to Josh Simmons, James Pearce Jr. will also be able to get to Will Howard on a consistent basis, especially at the edge position. Howard crumbled under pressure against the Wolverines, and this was a big reason why he threw two costly interceptions. It is also clear that the Ohio State’s players don’t believe in Head Coach Ryan Day, who has been the primary catalyst for many of the Buckeyes’ collapses in the last four years. This is not just a soft team, they are a broken team, and I expect the Volunteers to fully exploit this.

Final Prediction: Tennessee 34 – Ohio State 28

Source: Forbes

#12 Clemson @ #5 Texas

The Texas Longhorns are coming off a soul-crushing defeat to the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship, where they lost 22-19 in OT. During this game, the Longhorns’ offensive woes continued to limit them. Despite throwing for over 350 yards against Georgia’s secondary, Junior Quarterback Quinn Ewers threw two consequential interceptions that prevented the Longhorns from sustaining any offensive momentum. However, the Longhorn’s defense has continued to be their biggest strength. They are extremely deep at linebacker, led by True Freshman Colin Simmons, Sophomore Anthony Hill Jr., Senior Barryn Sorrell, and Junior Trey Moore. Each of these athletes has over 25 total tackles and three sacks on the season. In the secondary, they have two of the best cornerbacks in the country: Senior Jahdae Barron and Senior Andrew Mukuba. They have combined for nine interceptions. The biggest question mark for the Longhorns is at quarterback, since they have two starting-caliber players in Ewers and True Freshman Arch Manning. It will be interesting to see if Manning gets the nod given Ewers’ recent struggles, especially since Head Coach Steve Sarkisian has given Manning significant playing time this season.

On the other hand, the Clemson Tigers are coming off a 34-31 ACC Championship victory over the scintillating SMU Mustangs. Junior Quarterback Cade Klubnik has proven to be the difference-maker for this Tigers’ offense, and his four passing touchdowns against the Mustangs were instrumental in that win. He has been incredibly smart with his decision-making, which is apparent because he has only thrown five interceptions on the season. Their offense is well-balanced with a formidable rushing attack led by Senior Running Back Phil Mafah, who has accumulated over 1,000 rushing yards. On defense, Clemson has not displayed the same defensive dominance this season as compared to past seasons; however, Sophomore T.J. Parker has been a bright spot for them, posting 11 sacks and 6 forced fumbles.

The Clemson Tigers have not faced a defense like the one awaiting them in Austin, Texas. With this, Klubnik’s magic will run out against the best secondary in the nation, and I expect the Longhorns’ defense to stifle the Tigers’ offense.

Final Prediction: Texas 24 – Clemson 10

Source: Andscape

#11 SMU @ #6 Penn State

Penn State is coming off a 45-37 Big Ten Championship loss to the Oregon Ducks. This game saw the Nittany Lions lean on their elite backfield tandem. Junior Running Backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen both had over 100 yards against an elite Oregon Ducks’ defense. On the season, they have both rushed for over 800 yards. The Nittany Lions also have the best tight end in the nation with Senior Tyler Warren. Warren is the leading receiver for the Nittany Lions, and he has accumulated over 1,000 receiving yards this season. Penn State also sports a top 10 statistical defense, and they have an exceptional rushing defense. They are led by Junior Defensive End Abdul Carter, who has 60 total tackles and 10 sacks, as well as Senior Safety Jaylen Reed, who has a team-leading 79 total tackles and three interceptions. On the other hand, Junior Quarterback Drew Allar has been inconsistent throughout this season, and he threw two interceptions in the Big Ten Championship game. He will need to play better if the Nittany Lions want to make a run in the College Football Playoff.

The SMU Mustangs had an opportunity to win their first ACC Championship; however, this inaugural championship was hastily stolen from them by the Clemson Tigers. Of note, the Mustangs have the fourth-ranked rushing defense in the country, allowing opposing teams to only 93.4 rushing yards/game. This effort has been spearheaded by Senior Linebacker Kobe Wilson and Junior Safety Isaiah Nwokobia. Also, the Mustangs have excelled at forcing turnovers, especially at the safety position. SMU rotates around Nwokobia, Junior Ahmaad Moses, and Senior Jonathan McGill, all of whom have three interceptions. On offense, Senior Running Back Brashard Smith has been an explosive weapon, opening up a balanced attack for the Mustangs, especially with dynamic Sophomore Quarterback Kevin Jennings at the helm. Jennings has done a great job of distributing the ball to his different weapons. In fact, seven different offensive players have over 300 receiving yards for the SMU Mustangs, reflecting upon the multifaceted nature of their offense. Jennings is also known for his improvisation, and it is nearly impossible to bring him down. Both of these aspects of the Mustangs’ passing offense makes them hard to defend from a secondary’s perspective.

Penn State put up a respectable fight against the Oregon Ducks, who are the best team in the country. Although SMU matches up well, especially given their elite rushing defense, the Mustangs haven’t ventured to the ostensibly blissful region known as Happy Valley. Don’t let its name deceive you: Happy Valley is where elite teams perish. This home field advantage will be difficult for an emerging football program like SMU to handle, which is why I am giving the nod to the Nittany Lions.

Final Prediction: Penn State 28 – SMU 20

Source: South Bend Tribune

#10 Indiana @ #7 Notre Dame

After the Notre Dame Fighting Irish suffered a shocking loss to the Northern Illinois Huskies, they have responded exceedingly well, winning 10 straight. They are another team in the College Football Playoff that has been anchored by an exceptional defense. They have the eight-best statistical defense in the country, holding opposing teams to 296.8 yards/game. Their secondary is the life of their defense, with the safety tandem of Senior Xavier Watts and Sophomore Adon Shuler representing the heart. At cornerback, True Freshman Leonard Moore and Sophomore Christian Gray complete this dangerous secondary. On the other hand, their rush defense has been a weakness this season, since they are allowing opposing teams to rush for 138.8 yards/game. In terms of Notre Dame’s offense, they haven’t been explosive, especially in their passing attack. Their leading receiver, Senior Wideout Beaux Collins, only has 427 receiving yards, and a majority of their offense has been generated from the legs of Senior Quarterback Riley Leonard. This has made Notre Dame’s offense one-dimensional.

The Indiana Hoosiers topped off the regular season with a 66-0 thrashing of the Purdue Boilermakers. The Hoosiers have been the surprise of the 2024 College Football season, having their best season in the history of their program under first-year Head Coach Curt Cignetti. Indiana, similar to Notre Dame, is anchored by a dominant defense that is ranked second-best statistically. Unlike the Fighting Irish, the strength of the Hoosiers’ defense lies in their ability to stall opposing running backs, since they are holding opposing teams to 70.8 rushing yards/game. Junior Linebacker Aiden Fisher, along with a formidable interior defensive line consisting of Senior James Carpenter, Sophomore Tyrique Tucker, and Senior C.J. West deterred opposing running backs. Indiana also possesses a balanced offense. In the backfield, they have two great running backs at their disposal: Senior Justice Ellison and Senior Ty Son Lawton. In the passing attack, the Hoosiers are led by Senior Quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who transferred from Ohio University. His main target has been Junior Wide Receiver Elijah Sarratt, but Sophomore Wide Receiver Omar Cooper Jr. has been the perfect complement to Sarratt.

Although Indiana will have fits trying to throw against an elite Notre Dame secondary, I believe that the Hoosiers’ rushing attack will be able to have its way against a weak rushing defense. Indiana also has a very balanced defense, which I expect to dominate against a Notre Dame offense that has lacked a true identity all season. In essence, balance always wins out, and the Hoosiers are a much more balanced team than the Fighting Irish.

Final Prediction: Indiana 31 – Notre Dame 20